GUESS WHAT?

I’m writing about politics...Kentucky’s and the nation’s. And both are in poor shape.

The state GOP finally admitted it had done a bad job publicizing this year’s presidential caucus. Party leaders said the group had counted on the candidates to do that, but guess what?  They were too busy in other states, such as the Super Tuesday states to do it. Thus the “RPK” as it is called abdicated its responsibilities to its own members.

And there are still 9 counties without a caucus site, and who knows what arrangements to car pool or bus members to a neighboring county.

This caucus idea was a very bad one from the start and does not deserve  to be repeated.

But not  nearly as bad at Sen. McConnell’s plan to refuse the President’s nominee for the Supreme Court a hearing...in the face of the clear requirement of that document that he “shall” do it...and in the face of the strict construction approach the late Justice Scalia would have taken on that...had Mitch asked him.

Nationally, I shudder for my fellow political reporters who keep getting it as wrong as many polls. (BTW, did you see that in Iowa we had “entrance” polls to caucuses, not just exit...and, of course, NO margin of error for either, if such even exists for entrance polls).

Please do NOT, I beg you, assume any election is over, as of now.  After all, HRC was the clear winner expected in 2008  (only 8 years ago, fellow scribes) and was anointed last year...and again after each state’s returns this year.

(BTW-2,  2 Sundays ago, the Lexington paper ran 2 AP stories on the SC and Nev elections...without giving a SINGLE VOTE total reported in either story...not the raw totals, not percentages, ZIP.  USA Today did the same yesterday; what’s going on here.

Will there be a brokered convention?  Who knows? Almost everything else this election season has turned out to be wrong.

But these figures don’t lie….IF Trump were to find every single delegate vote in ALL the Super Tuesday states, he would have a little over 50% of the convention delegates he needs….and that leaves a long, long way to Cleveland (and sanity).

Let me add, the only thing more wide open than the political campaign is who will win the Final Four. Stay tuned for both.

I'm just sayin'...

NO SENATOR, NO NO NO

Senator McConnell is considered, even by his opponents, to be a savvy politician...but he has stumbled badly in our latest constitutional issue.

Justice Scalia’s body wasn’t even cold before Mitch was telling the President not to bother to send a nominee to the Senate because that body wouldn’t even  take it up.  Besides being an insult to our President, and an affront to the Constitution, this was very, very bad PR for the GOP, often accused of leading the charge to close the government and causing the logjam in Washington. 

Scalia was our leading advocate of strict interpretation of the Constitution, and in his honor, the Senate leader was saying he would ignore exactly what that document says, that the “President SHALL..” send a nominee forward. What an ironic statement to follow Scalia’s death!

McConnell forgot his own history, because as a young lawyer he had urged a previous President years ago to do just that.

BTW, the last time, in an election year, the president sent forth a nominee, the Democratic controlled Senate almost unanimously approved Justice Kennedy, a Republican,  to the court.

Without a 9^th member, some cases may well have to be reargued whenever the final member is approved..at UNnecessary expense to you and me, while major decisions could hang in the balance.  Bad idea.

Mitch is banking on the GOP winning the White house and someone more conservative than Obama making the nomination.

Let me suggest that is not only a bad idea, but an outcome that may well NOT happen.

This is the wildest presidential campaign I have seen in over 40 years of covering them. The polls have been wrong, and the so called “political experts” have been even more wrong, and no one knows that November will bring. But let me suggest, for Senator McConnell’s consideration, playing the odds:

There are but 2 major parties. The odds are 50/50 the GOP will win, or the Democrats will. 50/50

There are 2 major Democratic candidates as of now. The odds are 50/50 our next Chief Executive will be HRC or Senator Sanders. 50/50

Would you rather have Mr. Obama make the nomination, Senator, or Mrs Clinton?  Or that Socialist colleague of yours, Sen. Sanders.

Think about it.  50/50 Senator.

Why not, in Justice Scalia’s honor, follow his beloved Constitution, receive Pres. Obama’s nominee, give the person an honest hearing, THEN decide yea or nay.

The memory of Justice Scalia, our Constitution, and our country deserve that approach.

I'm just sayin'...

MAYOR GRAY AND MEMBERS OF THE COUNCIL:

Rather than waste my  breath and your time telling you how disgusted I am with the way this entire affair has been handled, and anyone who has had anything to do with it, I am going to do my best to make lemonade here and be positive.

Here are just a few of the things I urge you to do:

1—find out WHO told that survey firm to limit its report to only downtown sites.

2—insist, in the strongest terms---including litigation—that firm now survey sites out of the downtown at NO increase in cost to the city.

3---when that new report is done, or maybe even concurrent with it, call for any citizen to suggest what should be done with our Pit Bull. I’m sure you will get some irreverent ideas, even funny ones, but I strongly suspect you will get some solid ideas…and since the “professionals” have so badly screwed up, let’s hear from the average citizen. Gov. Bevin said he got some good ideas this way for state government, we can too.

Maybe it should be a park. Maybe an important art work should take its place..as the Picasso statue symbolizes Chicago, or that Troll eating the VW does in Seattle. Maybe it should be tied in to the Town Branch project. Whatever. We definitely need ideas.

4—above all, we need to agree on what went wrong. I am quite serious when I say the council should adopt a formal declaration, resolution, whatever that spells this out. Reasonable people can disagree, but I suspect there is a core of agreement here...which can provide a valuable guide for the future.  “This is what went wrong. Step 1, Step 2, and so on.” This can help make sure we don’t fail again, and that is not guaranteed.

Good luck...you’ll need it.

I'm just sayin'...

EVERYONE LOST IN IOWA

‘Cept maybe Cruz, but then he is now everyone’s target.

Trump didn’t make first.  Rubio did do well, but he is also a new target, and if he is the “establishment” candidate the GOP is still in trouble.

Bernie and HRC drew.  On to NH and South Carolina.

The polls got it wrong (again) even the “gold standard of polls.”

Some political reporters, whose short memory doesn’t go back to HRC and 2008, were still referring to her as “invincible," but good ole Bob Schieffer on CBS said “In no way is this a Clinton win.”  "Rat on!”

Rand didn’t get the message and drop out…but he still has time.

Now under the “friends and neighbors” theory of some reporters, Bernie will take NH…cause he lives next door. But then Romney from Mass. didn’t win NH, and Hubert from Minn. Lost Wisconsin in ’60 to JFK.

It’s still a long way to the conventions. Maybe, just maybe the media and the pollsters will get smarter…and the voters, too.

I'm just sayin'...