1—if my Democratic friends
think they will have a cakewalk this fall, and HRC or Bernie, will waltz into
1600 Pa. Avenue, think again. Trump has been a masterful campaigner, bringing
out many, many people to his rallies (as The Bern has) and that bodes well for
the fall. And even with prominent defections from his cause, party
histories are, they kiss and make up before the vote.
2—But this is a unique
presidential year. Never have the polls shown so many people rejecting the 2
major party candidates as unworthy or with such high negatives; never.
3---That said, forget most of
such polling. It is MUCH too early for polls to mean anything. (Remember in
Iowa 13 polls in advance of its famous caucus were all wrong!) Wait till
mid-October.
4—Speaking of October, this
may well be the year of the “October Surprise.” What would ISIS (or other
terrorist groups) give to influence our elections by causing some major, tragic
event this fall close to voting time. How would that influence the outcome?
5---A “dead heat” poll is not
43-46% with the margin of error (MOE) at 3%. That’s a close race, but not the
dead head major media reported over the weekend. 46-46 is a dead heat.
6---But, for the first time
we are seeing polls (see item #3 above) showing Trump ahead of HRC (but not
Sanders) and this should give Dems some concern. (see item #1 above)
7—In short, keep your powder
dry, don’t make any election bets just yet, and…Stay Tuned.
I'm just sayin'...