1—if my Democratic friends think they will have a cakewalk this fall, and HRC or Bernie, will waltz into 1600 Pa. Avenue, think again. Trump has been a masterful campaigner, bringing out many, many people to his rallies (as The Bern has) and that bodes well for the fall. And even with prominent defections from his cause, party histories are, they kiss and make up before the vote.
2—But this is a unique presidential year. Never have the polls shown so many people rejecting the 2 major party candidates as unworthy or with such high negatives; never.
3---That said, forget most of such polling. It is MUCH too early for polls to mean anything. (Remember in Iowa 13 polls in advance of its famous caucus were all wrong!) Wait till mid-October.
4—Speaking of October, this may well be the year of the “October Surprise.” What would ISIS (or other terrorist groups) give to influence our elections by causing some major, tragic event this fall close to voting time. How would that influence the outcome?
5---A “dead heat” poll is not 43-46% with the margin of error (MOE) at 3%. That’s a close race, but not the dead head major media reported over the weekend. 46-46 is a dead heat.
6---But, for the first time we are seeing polls (see item #3 above) showing Trump ahead of HRC (but not Sanders) and this should give Dems some concern. (see item #1 above)
7—In short, keep your powder dry, don’t make any election bets just yet, and…Stay Tuned.
I'm just sayin'...